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China TOPCon cell prices dip despite looming cost pressures

Source：pv magazine

China TOPCon cell prices moved lower this week, despite increasingly bullish sentiment among market sources who expect prices to find support in the coming weeks.

According to the OPIS Solar Weekly Report released on December 16, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed 1.06% lower at $0.0374/W, with price indications between $0.0364-0.0387/W.

Several market sources anticipate Chinese cell prices to firm, driven primarily by rising production costs. Silver, a key input in the cell manufacturing process, may become a major upward cost driver after prices strengthened over the past month.

Market participants said silver prices could remain supported as China moves to tighten export controls. According to trade sources, new rules would introduce a quota-based export system from 2026 through 2027, requiring exporters to obtain licenses to ship silver overseas.

A Chinese cell producer told OPIS that its headquarters sees higher silver prices as the main driver behind rising cost pressure in the cell segment. The producer added that stronger silver demand could lift silver paste prices, which would in turn add upward pressure to cell prices.

Another top-tier cell manufacturer noted that cell pricing is also being influenced by upstream supply discipline, particularly in the wafer and polysilicon segments. The source said wafer prices may face upward pressure as producers are impacted by poor margins and are likely to implement more aggressive output cuts.

In the polysilicon market, discussions continued around the potential downstream impact of the newly established polysilicon platform company announced last week. However, most sources believe the consolidation plan has had limited direct influence so far, as policy details remain vague.

Meanwhile, a key bottleneck for India's cell manufacturing expansion—securing visas for Chinese technicians—is set to ease. On December 17, the Indian government announced streamlined business visa procedures for foreign engineers and technicians, explicitly including Chinese nationals

Following a 2020 border clash, India had sharply tightened visas for Chinese citizens, with issuances plummeting from 200,000 in 2019 to an estimated 2,000 in 2024, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Market participants anticipate the visa easement to significantly help manufacturers aiming to scale domestic cell production ahead of June 2026, when the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) framework is set to extend to cells. From then, ALMM-compliant modules used in covered projects will be required to be manufactured with cells listed on the ALMM List-II.

In a related development, the ALMM List-II saw significant expansion this week. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy added 5,251 MW of Waaree’s solar cell capacity to its Dec. 15 update of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II, bringing total listed cell capacity to 23.7 GW.

Waaree’s newly listed capacity includes 3.92 GW of TOPCon cells and 1.33 GW of PERC cells. Waaree now holds the largest enlisted TOPCon capacity.